🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Trader Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the president had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But these probabilities had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in positions just before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate. A small number of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Emerges Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."