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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."