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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.